Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 123,563
2 South Dakota 115,447
3 Iowa 92,926
4 Wisconsin 92,831
5 Utah 92,738
6 Rhode Island 91,178
7 Tennessee 90,868
8 Nebraska 89,846
9 Kansas 82,565
10 Idaho 82,537
11 Indiana 81,624
12 Arkansas 81,488
13 Arizona 80,836
14 Wyoming 79,770
15 Illinois 79,768
16 Oklahoma 79,695
17 Montana 79,387
18 Alabama 79,383
19 Nevada 78,293
20 Mississippi 77,781
21 Minnesota 76,181
22 Louisiana 72,718
23 New Mexico 72,404
24 Missouri 71,783
25 Alaska 66,928
26 Florida 66,567
27 Kentucky 66,018
28 Texas 65,945
29 Georgia 65,911
30 South Carolina 65,669
31 California 65,521
32 Delaware 64,645
33 Ohio 64,424
34 New Jersey 63,582
35 Colorado 61,645
36 Massachusetts 59,717
37 Connecticut 56,870
38 North Carolina 56,760
39 New York 55,626
40 Michigan 55,450
41 Pennsylvania 54,602
42 West Virginia 53,568
43 Maryland 48,968
44 Virginia 44,833
45 District of Columbia 43,570
46 New Hampshire 36,229
47 Puerto Rico 35,542
48 Washington 35,329
49 Oregon 28,708
50 Maine 20,551
51 Hawaii 15,969
52 Vermont 13,466

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Arizona 1,229
2 Arkansas 1,229
3 Rhode Island 1,221
4 Utah 1,214
5 Tennessee 1,140
6 Louisiana 1,138
7 Alabama 1,028
8 California 964
9 Kentucky 959
10 Massachusetts 919
11 Texas 907
12 Delaware 895
13 Mississippi 875
14 Georgia 846
15 Nevada 846
16 Indiana 833
17 Florida 823
18 South Carolina 818
19 New York 800
20 West Virginia 765
21 Connecticut 759
22 North Carolina 740
23 New Jersey 735
24 Pennsylvania 735
25 Ohio 731
26 Oklahoma 723
27 Wisconsin 723
28 Iowa 721
29 New Mexico 716
30 Kansas 703
31 Idaho 683
32 Nebraska 657
33 Montana 653
34 Illinois 614
35 Virginia 591
36 Missouri 587
37 Colorado 564
38 South Dakota 561
39 Wyoming 530
40 New Hampshire 473
41 Maryland 445
42 Maine 410
43 Michigan 402
44 North Dakota 400
45 District of Columbia 399
46 Alaska 387
47 Minnesota 348
48 Washington 337
49 Vermont 283
50 Oregon 206
51 Hawaii 122
52 Puerto Rico 114

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,211
2 New York 1,988
3 Massachusetts 1,872
4 Rhode Island 1,802
5 North Dakota 1,768
6 Connecticut 1,763
7 South Dakota 1,745
8 Mississippi 1,700
9 Louisiana 1,662
10 Illinois 1,494
11 Michigan 1,388
12 Pennsylvania 1,345
13 Arizona 1,341
14 Indiana 1,310
15 Arkansas 1,300
16 Iowa 1,288
17 New Mexico 1,279
18 District of Columbia 1,144
19 South Carolina 1,099
20 Nevada 1,087
21 Tennessee 1,087
22 Florida 1,046
23 Kansas 1,039
24 Alabama 1,036
25 Georgia 1,024
26 Texas 1,022
27 Maryland 1,021
28 Missouri 1,016
29 Minnesota 1,000
30 Delaware 974
31 Montana 972
32 Nebraska 966
33 Wisconsin 942
34 Colorado 896
35 Idaho 849
36 West Virginia 847
37 Wyoming 844
38 Ohio 809
39 California 722
40 Kentucky 707
41 North Carolina 692
42 Oklahoma 675
43 Virginia 618
44 New Hampshire 608
45 Puerto Rico 497
46 Washington 488
47 Utah 424
48 Oregon 373
49 Alaska 292
50 Maine 286
51 Vermont 248
52 Hawaii 209

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Arizona 32
2 Wyoming 29
3 Nebraska 26
4 West Virginia 22
5 Pennsylvania 21
6 Mississippi 19
7 Montana 19
8 Rhode Island 17
9 Michigan 16
10 Missouri 16
11 New Mexico 16
12 Indiana 15
13 Nevada 15
14 New Jersey 15
15 Tennessee 15
16 Kansas 14
17 Alabama 13
18 Arkansas 13
19 California 13
20 Illinois 13
21 North Dakota 12
22 Wisconsin 12
23 Connecticut 11
24 Massachusetts 11
25 New Hampshire 11
26 South Carolina 11
27 South Dakota 11
28 Texas 11
29 Idaho 10
30 Louisiana 10
31 Oklahoma 10
32 Ohio 9
33 Colorado 8
34 Georgia 8
35 Maryland 8
36 Minnesota 8
37 New York 8
38 North Carolina 8
39 Iowa 7
40 Kentucky 7
41 Washington 7
42 Florida 6
43 Maine 6
44 District of Columbia 5
45 Utah 5
46 Vermont 5
47 Virginia 5
48 Delaware 4
49 Oregon 4
50 Puerto Rico 3
51 Alaska 2
52 Hawaii 2

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 275,037 1 99
Dewey South Dakota 223,693 2 99
Norton Kansas 221,787 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 220,900 4 99
Bon Homme South Dakota 215,621 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 105,933 281 91
Richland South Carolina 68,128 1605 48
York South Carolina 60,236 1994 36
Orange California 59,204 2033 35
Pierce Washington 32,568 2850 9

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 8,346 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,452 2 99
Dickey North Dakota 6,568 3 99
Gregory South Dakota 6,213 4 99
Iron Wisconsin 6,154 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 864 1847 41
Richland South Carolina 839 1892 39
York South Carolina 669 2189 30
Orange California 621 2253 28
Pierce Washington 418 2593 17

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons